Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 21.402699 25.684819 30.407813 35.977353 42.338219 49.348728 57.631023
2025-05-25 14.392566 19.794949 26.392903 34.927978 45.551057 58.207569 74.284750
2025-06-01 10.753930 16.495275 24.087420 34.613213 48.551545 66.083450 89.471651
2025-06-08 8.015517 13.607835 21.557507 33.271589 49.626013 71.145785 101.020102
2025-06-15 6.694780 12.387639 20.981910 34.285189 53.648968 80.030639 117.776374
2025-06-22 5.232214 10.608497 19.249697 33.311227 54.643336 84.708861 128.989215
2025-06-29 4.520990 9.902699 19.013987 34.452781 58.656047 93.683008 146.434344
2025-07-06 3.431095 8.273147 17.007205 32.537598 57.836460 95.580604 153.883125
2025-07-13 3.017995 7.830341 16.932573 33.698739 61.774086 104.573831 171.870064
2025-07-20 2.637132 7.364643 16.735402 34.596515 65.303206 113.077214 189.452977
2025-07-27 2.357656 7.052857 16.769354 35.870345 69.487950 122.738084 209.113978
2025-08-03 2.090218 6.705410 16.676972 36.883945 73.267313 131.901696 228.338838
2025-08-10 1.707164 6.019403 15.884838 36.683068 75.241301 138.756619 245.059959
2025-08-17 1.319686 5.200973 14.684111 35.584480 75.602517 143.115367 258.257715
2025-08-24 1.059848 4.640790 13.937372 35.263344 77.279934 149.660390 275.135712
2025-08-31 0.797887 3.959853 12.765888 33.901360 76.885756 152.649910 286.342823
2025-09-07 0.693030 3.760419 12.729980 34.930291 81.050402 163.585100 310.934101
2025-09-14 0.529438 3.265299 11.830218 33.941596 81.215343 167.549868 324.088481
2025-09-21 0.465007 3.133564 11.880763 35.100410 85.681624 179.275366 350.669793
2025-09-28 0.328379 2.599379 10.671999 33.156202 83.720084 179.370297 357.463576
2025-10-05 0.289377 2.509065 10.758124 34.334980 88.258265 191.452037 385.261019
2025-10-12 0.250015 2.392629 10.739190 35.246309 92.282587 202.738897 412.029191
2025-10-19 0.222271 2.325485 10.866367 36.539252 97.193304 215.858234 442.403531